Photo: Ice cruising in the Arctic (source: Gary Bembridge, www.flickr.com)

As early as 2030

Safe navigation in the Arctic will probably be possible in the second half of this century. This means that ice-free conditions will last for months by then. However, the first time we will observe ice-free conditions in the Arctic Ocean will be much sooner. Predictions of the first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean, based on several models, show that this day could happen as early as 2030.

The authors of this study stress that ‘the first ice-free day has high symbolic significance’ since it may take several decades for the Arctic Ocean to become ice-free every year.

Optimistic

This is a worrying development, but there is some good news as well, according to the authors. The model simulations show that the first ice-free day only occurs once mean global temperature has reached or exceeded 1.5 °C global warming compared to the pre-industrial level for 5 years in a row. If we could keep warming below the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 °C of global warming, this situation could still be avoided.

The authors may be too optimistic. Their colleagues think differently about this. Most climate experts already assume that global warming will exceed 2 °C . This means that the first ice-free day in the coming years seems likely to become a fact.

Source: Heuzé and Jahn, 2024. The first ice-free day in the Arctic Ocean could occur before 2030. Nature Communications 15: 10101.