Vulnerabilities

Between 2009 and 2017 there were over 258 thousand wildfires in England, burning nearly 37 thousand hectares (6). The 2018 wildfire season in the UK was similar to or slightly worse than that of 2003 but possibly not as severe as the years 1995 and 1976. It is difficult to compare wildfire outbreaks in the past and draw conclusions about their relative severity due to differences in the way fires have been reported over the years (4).

Most of the land area burnt by wildfires across the UK is arable, grassland, or mountain and heath open habitats (7). Between 2009 and 2017 woodland and forest fires accounted for less than 5% of the land area burnt in England (6).

During an unprecedented heatwave in the UK in 2022, temperatures reached 40 °C for the first time in recorded history. This extreme heat was accompanied by widespread fires across England. An analysis revealed that the probability of the very high fire weather that summer in the UK has increased at least 6-fold because of climate change (2025).

Moorland fires

Between 2015 and 2020, wildfires affected over 68,000 ha of Scotland (8) with half of fires occurring in dry and wet heathlands and the other half in blanket bogs (9). Warmer temperatures and decreased precipitation in Scotland are expected to result in longer fire seasons, increased fuel flammability and lower water tables (10).

Kersey et al. (1) reported on the risk of moorland fires in the East Midlands. An increased risk of moorland fires arising from climate change is a major issue for the Peak District. Such fires could lead to the replacement of heather moorland by grass, with serious implications for soil erosion and grouse-shooting. There have been 30 to 40 fires on the National Trust estate in the High Peak in the past decade – about a dozen of which have been classified as ‘major’ fires. Approximately one third of fires are caused by visitors’ cigarettes, whilst another third are heather management fires that have gone out of control (1).

Fires have a direct impact upon plant communities. An even greater problem is when fires get down into the peat causing large areas of erosion which are very difficult to re-vegetate, and which add to water colouration and associated treatment problems (1).

The Peak District National Park Authority has done much work on educating visitors about the risks and hazards of fire. Work is also proceeding on how to respond more effectively to fires when they do occur. Schemes are also being undertaken in the Peak on how to restore vegetation after fires. The problem of re-vegetation was described by the National Trust, however, as ‘quite immense’ (1).

The impact of climate change on the number of wildfires in the Peak District uplands has been investigated (3). Future climate projections suggest an overall increase in occurrence of summer wildfires in the Peak District uplands. The likelihood of spring wildfires is not reduced by wetter winter conditions. Temperature rise has a non-linear impact, with the risk of wildfire occurrence rising disproportionately with temperature. Recreation use is a major source of ignition. Little change in wildfire incidence is projected in the near future, but as climate change intensifies, the danger of summer wildfires is projected to increase from 2070 (3).

Forest fires

In the UK, between now and 2100, the conditions will change towards a higher risk of forest fires (2). The absolute danger now and into the future is greatest in the south and east of England, but danger increases too further north (5).

Peatland fires carbon emissions

The impact of climate change on high-latitude peatland fire emissions was evaluated in a recent study by using the United Kingdom as an example. Peatlands cover 9% of the UK’s land-area (12). The authors quantified carbon emissions from wildfires from 2001–2021 for four distinguished land cover categories: ‘Forests and Woodlands’, ‘Moorlands and Heathlands’, ‘Peatlands’ and ‘Other Natural and Managed Lands’. They included data on biomass above and below the ground. For peatlands they selected areas with peats deeper than 0.5 m (11).

Peatland fires comprised about 25% of total average burned area from 2001–2021 in the UK. There was a lot of variation from one year to another in the annual carbon emissions by wildfires over this period. The emissions in 2003, for example, were nearly eightfold higher than the mean. That year also had the largest total burned area of this twenty-year period: about 50,000 ha (11).

Of all four distinguished land cover categories – ‘Forests and Woodlands’, ‘Moorlands and Heathlands’, ‘Peatlands’ and ‘Other Natural and Managed Lands’ – peatland fires dominated carbon emissions by wildfires in the UK. About 70% of the total UK wildfire carbon emissions were caused by the burning of organic soils in peatlands, at depths ranging between 0.9 and 8.0 cm (11). 

Moorlands and heathlands contributed the most to the total burned area, 5600 ha per year on average. Peatlands burned on average 2530 ha per year. Emissions on moorlands and heathlands were primarily due to aboveground biomass combustion. The carbon density of this biomass is much lower than the carbon density of belowground biomass in peatlands. That’s why peatlands are UK’s dominant source of carbon emissions by wildfires. This dominant role is even more striking when one realizes that above-ground plant biomass will regrow between fires, making it unlikely that these fires will be a net source of emissions in the long term. Carbon loss from peat fires is more or less permanent (11).

The number of wildfires in the UK has increased year-on-year between 2014 and 2021; the trend is statistically significant. Fire seasons are also lengthening, from 1 to 4 months between 2011 and 2016 to between 6 and 9 months between 2017 and 2021. Fire season has become longer especially in Scotland. Scotland comprised about 45% of the total burned area in the UK in this period, and almost a quarter of all peatlands in the UK (11).

In addition to the quantifications for 2001–2021, the authors made future projections of carbon emissions from peatland fires for a 2 °C warmer world. Future wildfires are projected to increase the UK’s carbon emission from peatlands by 61% compared with 2001–2021 emissions. The increase results from soil moisture changes, and therefore increased burn depths of peatlands. The authors conclude that ‘protecting peatlands from fires in the UK would be a cost-effective way to slow climate change by avoiding future emissions’ (11).

The 61% increase is is based only on projected drier soil conditions and assumes no change in total burned area. An increase of burned area is to be expected, however, pushing carbon emissions up further. Besides, the study only included peatlands with peats deeper than 0.5 m. Shallow peats may also be at increased risk of wildfire and may therefore contribute to equally high carbon emissions in the future (11).

Adaptation strategies

Adaptation options to forest fire risk should aim to decrease the vulnerability, where a change in tree species from conifers to broadleaves had most effect (2).

Moorlands may have to be managed to reduce the chance of summer wildfires becoming catastrophic, with consequent damage to ecosystem services such as water supplies and peat carbon storage. Management measures may include controlled burning, grazing or mowing to remove fuel (3).

References

The references below are cited in full in a separate map 'References'. Please click here if you are looking for the full references for the United Kingdom.

1. Kersey et al. (2000)
2. Schelhaas et al. (2010)
3. Albertson et al. (2010)
4. Sibley (2019)
5. Arnell et al. (2021)
6. Forestry Commission (2019), in: Arnell et al. (2021)
7. de Jong et al. (2016); Gazzard et al. (2016); Forestry Commission (2019), all in: Arnell et al. (2021)
8. EFFIS (2022b), in: Naszarkowski et al. (2024)
9. Taylor et al. (2021), in: Naszarkowski et al. (2024)
10. Westerling et al. (2006); Wotton and Flannigan (1993), both in: Naszarkowski et al. (2024)
11. Baker et al. (2025)
12. Xu et al (2018) in: Baker et al. (2025)
13. Burton et al. (2025)