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United Kingdom

Insurance and Business

Vulnerabilities UK - Business

London is ranked the ninth most vulnerable megacity on a risk register of natural hazards for the worlds’ 50 megacities (80). All of London’s natural hazards are weather-related; the probability of all these risks is predicted to increase as the climate changes (38).

In a study in 2012 80% of 89 directly responding FTSE 100 companies identify substantive risks to their business as a result of climate change. Many FTSE 100 companies operate internationally, and much of their physical risk perception and adaptation efforts are focused outside the UK. For businesses, risks and opportunities are strongly linked. Many new business risks can also be seen as opportunities because there is the possibility of  gaining competitive advantage through doing better than peers or by financially beneficial strategic repositioning. Less than half of responding FTSE 100 companies incorporate climate adaptation into their business strategies. Among those that do, the main focus is on assets, followed by logistics and finance. (39).

Virtual water trade

Countries import water embodied in primary and manufactured goods that are produced in other countries (‘virtual water’ trade). It is estimated that ~70% of the total water used in production and consumption in the UK (73 billion m3 yr−1) is imported from other countries in the form of water embodied in goods (51). As such, the UK is one of the most water import-dependent nations in the world, alongside a small number of other North European countries and Middle Eastern states. The UK is not able to substitute all foreign imports for domestic production, so the role of international trade and implied access to water is essential to maintaining current patterns of consumption. Climate change risks in other countries may affect the security of food supplies and other essential commodities in the UK (50).

Of a large number of import categories considered, bovine meat production, plastics and paper production contribute the largest quantities of embodied water, in absolute terms. In addition, rice and other meat categories (poultry, pig and sheep) also represent substantial quantities of embodied water. Embodied water estimates for UK industrial product imports are much less developed than for crops and livestock, reflecting their low importance in absolute terms (50).

Present UK insurance claims

In its 2004 report, A Changing Climate for Insurance, the Association of British Insurers (ABI), notes that claims for storm and flood damages in the UK doubled to over £6bn over the period 1998-2003, with the prospect of a further tripling by 2050 (4).


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Future UK insurance claims

In the UK the greatest threat from climate change to property is the increased risk of damage by flood. A 2004 report by Foresight estimated that the average annual damages of flooding and coastal erosion could rise from £1.4 billion per year to as high as £27 billion per year by 2080. The report also suggested that future economic damages from flooding can be reduced by between 40% and 70% through risk management activities.


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Present UK insurance policy

Britain is unique in Europe in not having the State as the insurer of last resort. The approach to flood insurance in the United Kingdom differs from those countries in which flood insurance is provided by the state and private insurance has minimal influence. The UK insurance market is unusual in offering flood cover as a standard feature of domestic and small business policies, and flood hazard mitigation is generally viewed as a partnership between Government and insurers, with Government providing physical protection backed up by financial protection provided by the insurance industry (13). Risk cover in the UK is bundled together (including fire, theft, storm, flood, and subsidence) as a standard package for domestic properties and small businesses and is available on a near universal basis (41,53).

Flood insurance in the UK is provided by private insurers as part of the home-insurance bundle. This has led to high insurance penetration rates, principally due to the need to have insurance when taking out a mortgage. The role of mortgage providers in requiring owner occupiers to hold buildings insurance as part of their mort- gage arrangement is another key factor for maintaining this high penetration rate and forms an important element within the arena of insurance provision (53). 


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Insurance UK policy at risk

To a large extent the rapid growth in the number of houses being built in high hazard areas could be considered the fault of the voluntary insurance guarantee. In any event, after forty years of the market distortion caused by the guarantee, insurers find themselves faced with the situation of a large and growing number of houses at risk from flood, as planners and developers have taken the continuing availability of cheap flood insurance for granted (1). The Association of British Insurers announced that its members would not be prepared to maintain the guarantee after 2002 unless planning guidelines were tightened up and more was spent on flood defences. In the meantime, insurers were free to start increasing premiums to more realistic levels.


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Present developments in England and Wales

5 million people are at risk from flooding every year. Property, land and assets to the value of ₤ 214 billion (1). It is estimated by the Association of British Insurers that there are 400,000 houses in England and Wales that are not defended against the 100-year event (15).


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Present developments in Scotland

Since Devolution 1999, Scotland has been actively pursuing much more effective flood risk management policies than England and Wales. Current planning strategies for most communities now presume against allowing any new housing development where the flood risk exceeds the 200-year return period.


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Climate change impacts on insurance in the UK

Insurers will be increasingly vulnerable to large claims resulting from storms and floods. Several studies highlighted the associated problems of gaining insurance cover and expected rising costs of insurance, particularly in flood risk areas. New insurance and financial products were seen as opportunities (4,20).


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Climate change impacts on insurance at the global scale

There is evidence that the risks posed by extreme weather-related hazards have been increasing over the past few decades, as illustrated by figures of rising global insured losses from natural catastrophes (34). After accounting for changes in population and wealth, it has been shown that changes in extreme weather events may be responsible for a growth in losses by about 2 per cent a year since the 1970s (35).

However, it is also clear that changes in weather-related hazards are not the only factors responsible for the patterns of increased risk and losses. Growing numbers of people, businesses and properties are being located in areas that are exposed to extreme weather-related hazards. And while successful efforts are being made to reduce vulnerabilities to these hazards, for example through more robust buildings, the overall effect is that the size of the global population at risk from extreme weather is increasing (36).

The London Climate Change Partnership (21) stated that the threat to the sector identified in the UK is exacerbated significantly by the high level of inter-dependence that exists in global capital and insurance markets. The scale of climate change impacts identified for the UK may potentially be significantly increased by climate change in other parts of the world, where assets are insured against damage in the London insurance market.


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Future strategy

A new flood insurance pool has been created, termed Flood Re (54), due to commence in summer 2015. Flood Re is based on households under low to normal risk issued with standard insurance provision with the free market, and high-risk properties under the Flood Re pool. The subsidy for the latter is claimed from a levy taken from all policyholders (53). 

Continuation of flood insurance in Scotland and Wales appears to be dependent on what happens in England. The Association of British Insurers will continue to play a key role alongside other stakeholders in securing an effective system of flood management and protection; the Government will need to provide early and accurate information on both risk levels and improvement plans. It is the intention of ABI members that flood insurance for domestic properties and small businesses should continue to be available for as many customers as possible. The premiums charged and other terms, such as excesses, will reflect the risk of flooding but will be offered in a competitive market (1).


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Insured losses - Globally

Globally, insured and total property losses are rising faster than premiums, population, or economic growth; inflation adjusted economic losses from catastrophic events rose by 8-fold between the 1960s and 1990s and insured losses by 17-fold. Large catastrophic events cause less damage in an average year than the aggregated impacts of relatively small events (a 40/60 ratio globally) (37).


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Flood risk insurance in Europe

Insurance can be considered an adaptation strategy since it reduces the follow-on economic impacts of extreme events and thus stabilizes the income and consumption stream of the affected, and thus clearly reduces vulnerability and impacts (48).

Different insurance and compensation systems

Insurance and compensation systems for flood risk in Europe have been divided into three categories (40):


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Vulnerabilities - Overview

The insurability of natural disasters and extreme weather events may be affected by increases in the frequency, severity, or unpredictability of these events. ... Climate change presents various challenges to insurability. These include technical and market-based risks (37):


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Adaptation strategies

Business

Climate change will affect businesses in two ways (38):

  • incremental changes that mean current business models become increasingly unsustainable, or opportunities are missed;
  • direct or indirect impacts from extreme weather events, that interrupt business and cannot be managed under a business-as-usual approach.

Businesses can respond to the climate risks and opportunities by undertaking a climate risks assessment and preparing a Business Continuity Plan. The UK Climate Impacts Programme has developed the Business Areas Climate Impacts Assessment Tool 113 (BACLIAT) – a checklist to assist businesses in identifying the challenges
and opportunities presented by climate change (38).

ICF International & RPA (27) define two approaches to risk adaptation:

  • a “precautionary” approach: adapt to climate change risks through planned investment or changes in systems and / or economic behavior,
  • insuring against potential climate related damages: insurance instruments such as CAT bonds and weather derivatives could be used as instruments to divert and spread climate-related risks.

These alternative approaches provide options for how the cost burden of adapting to climate change risks is managed. They will also influence who bears the financial consequences of adapting to climate change risks (e.g. public vs. private sectors; producers vs. consumers). Common to them, however, is the reality that climate change risks are likely to create significant requirements for capital, whether financed through mechanisms like water bills or through insurance premiums. Responding to climate change risks in the most efficient way will inevitably need a mix of measures that embrace both the “precautionary” planning approach and the “market” insurance approach.


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Responsibilities ‘Making Space for Water’

The current piecemeal approach to the fight against flooding cannot continue. There are currently too many organizations, each with too many competing priorities, to be able to give the fight against flooding the focus that it deserves. No single body is charged with preventing and managing flooding even though drains, sewers and rivers all contribute to flood risks. For example, river and coastline flooding is under the responsibility of the Environment Agency; drainage is in the hands of Local Authorities; water on main roads is the remit of the Highways Agency and Local Authorities; and private water companies are responsible for sewer flooding. Unless clear leadership is provided, there will continue to be contradictions in policy (5).


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References

The references below are cited in full in a separate map 'References'. Please click here if you are looking for the full references for the United Kingdom.

  1. Crichton (2005)
  2. Environment Agency (2001)
  3. May et al. (1998), in Crichton (2005)
  4. Defra (2008)
  5. Association of British Insurers (2007)
  6. DEFRA (2006), in: Eldridge and Horn (2009)
  7. Evans et al. (2004), in: Eldridge and Horn (2009)
  8. DEFRA (2001), in: Eldridge and Horn (2009)
  9. Hall et al. (2003), in: Eldridge and Horn (2009)
  10. Association of British Insurers (2009)
  11. Price and MacInally (2001), in: West and Gawith (2005)
  12. Dlugolecki (2004), in: West and Gawith (2005)
  13. Eldridge and Horn (2009)
  14. Environment Agency (2009)
  15. Milne (2002)
  16. High Level Target 12 – Environment Agency Report to DEFRA and DTLR July 2001, in: Crichton (2005)
  17. ODPM (2003), in: Eldridge and Horn (2009)
  18. Entec Ltd and JBA Ltd (2000), in: Crichton (2005)
  19. Scottish Executive (2002)
  20. West and Gawith (2005)
  21. The London Climate Change Partnership (2002)
  22. Bender (1991); Thompson (1996), both in: the London Climate Change Partnership (2002)
  23. Farrar and Vaze (2000)
  24. SCA (1998), in: Eldridge and Horn (2009)
  25. Thomalla (2001), in: Eldridge and Horn (2009)
  26. HMSO (2007), in: Eldridge and Horn (2009)
  27. ICF International & RPA (2007)
  28. DEFRA (2005), in: Eldridge and Horn (2009)
  29. Environment Agency (2007), in: Eldridge and Horn (2009)
  30. HMSO (2006), in: Eldridge and Horn (2009)
  31. DCLG (2006a), in: Eldridge and Horn (2009)
  32. Parker (1995), in: Eldridge and Horn (2009)
  33. Turner et al. (2007), in: Eldridge and Horn (2009)
  34. Munich Re Group (2007), in: Ward et al. (2008)
  35. Muir-Wood et al. (2006), in: Ward et al. (2008)
  36. Ward et al. (2008)
  37. Mills et al. (2005)
  38. Greater London Authority (2010)
  39. Carbon Disclosure Project (2012)
  40. Bouwer et al. (2007)
  41. Dawson et al. (2011)
  42. ABI (2008), in: Dawson et al. (2011)
  43. Aakre et al. (2010)
  44. Bouwer et al. (2007); CEA (2009); Swiss Re (1998); ISDR (2005); OECD (2005); Paklina (2003), in: Aakre et al. (2010)
  45. EUFR (2004), in: Aakre et al. (2010)
  46. EUFR (2002), in: Aakre et al. (2010)
  47. Council Regulation (2002), in: Aakre et al. (2010)
  48. Linnerooth-Bayer and Mechler (2007), in: Aakre et al. (2010)
  49. Hochrainer et al. (2010)
  50. Hunt et al. (2014)
  51. Chapagain and Hoekstra (2008), in: Hunt et al. (2014)
  52. Botzen and van der Bergh (2008), in: Keskitalo et al. (2014)
  53. Surminski et al. (2015)
  54. Defra and ABI (2013), in: Surminski et al. (2015)

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