Vulnerabilities Montenegro

A projected sea level rise of the Adriatic Sea of about 35 cm for the period 2071-2100 will provoke serious consequences and will increase coastal flood probability and the flooded area significantly. Examples of consequences are the reduction of the beach area, and the functioning of infrastructure, ports, water breaks, marinas, shipyards, etc. being endangered (30).

Global sea level rise

Observations

For the latest results: see Europe Coastal floods

Projections

For the latest results: see Europe Coastal floods

Extreme water levels - Global trends

More recent studies provide additional evidence that trends in extreme coastal high water across the globe reflect the increases in mean sea level (5), suggesting that mean sea level rise rather than changes in storminess are largely contributing to this increase (although data are sparse in many regions and this lowers the confidence in this assessment). It is therefore considered likely that sea level rise has led to a change in extreme coastal high water levels. It is likely that there has been an anthropogenic influence on increasing extreme coastal high water levels via mean sea level contributions. While changes in storminess may contribute to changes in sea level extremes, the limited geographical coverage of studies to date and the uncertainties associated with storminess changes overall mean that a general assessment of the effects of storminess changes on storm surge is not possible at this time.

On the basis of studies of observed trends in extreme coastal high water levels it is very likely that mean sea level rise will contribute to upward trends in the future.

Extreme waves - Future trends along the Mediterranean coast

Recent regional studies provide evidence for projected future declines in extreme wave height in the Mediterranean Sea (6). However, considerable variation in projections can arise from the different climate models and scenarios used to force wave models, which lowers the confidence in the projections (7).

Adaptation strategies Montenegro

The following adaptation measures have been reported (30):

• developing high quality and very operational services for monitoring the condition of the shore and waves, as the biggest potential danger, and early warning of the existence of danger, several days in advance;
• amendments to the applicable legislation in the field of spatial planning in order to include climate change so as to prohibit the construction and urbanization of the areas that will be exposed to potentially dangerous tidal waves as a result of the new situation;
• the existing infrastructure facilities should be resized to stand the load of new extreme climatic parameters and waves. This means that the existing buildings should be further strengthened;
• provide for maximum possible protection of water sources from the penetration of sea water. If possible, specific reservoirs should be moved to higher elevations, where only a few meters more would be enough to keep the situation completely under control;
• some buildings should be demolished and the inhabitants relocated, thus allowing for an unimpeded propagation of strong tidal waves, with no consequences for the environment and the people;
• some parts of the coast, will be completely flooded several times a year. According to the present situation regarding the level of population and urbanization, it is expected that between 10% and 20% of the urbanized coast will be relocated, as a measure of adaptation.

References

The references below are cited in full in a separate map 'References'. Please click here if you are looking for the full references for Montenegro.

1. Ministry for Spatial Planning and Environment of the Republic of Montenegro (2010)
2. Bindoff et al. (2007), in: IPCC (2012)
3. Church and White (2011), in: IPCC (2012)
4. Velicogna (2009); Rignot et al. (2011); Sørensen et al. (2011), all in: IPCC (2012)
5. Marcos et al. (2009); Haigh et al. (2010); Menendez and Woodworth (2010), all in: IPCC (2012)
6. Lionello et al. (2008), in: IPCC (2012)
7. IPCC (2012)
8. Cazenave et al. (2014)
9. IPCC (2014)
10. Watson et al. (2015)
11. Yi et al. (2015)
12. Church et al. (2013), in: Watson et al. (2015)
13. Shepherd et al. (2012), in: Watson et al. (2015)
14. Church et al. (2013), in: Watson et al. (2015)