Energy in numbers - Denmark

In 2005, 13.6% of the actual consumption of energy was supplied by renewable energy. The renewable energy resources are mainly wind energy and biomass. Internationally, Denmark is among the leading nations in wind energy (10). Wind share of total electricity consumption in Denmark was 24% by the end of 2010, the highest in Europe. Overall in the EU, in a normal wind year, installed wind capacity at the end of 2010 meets 5.3% of the EU’s electricity needs (15).

Denmark’s future wind energy potential

Changes in energy supply are expected, including greater production of renewable energy and altered consumption patterns with less heating in winter and more cooling in summer (12).

Denmark has significantly stronger wind than the other Nordic countries. Climate change projections show an increase of 0.8 % in wind speed in 2040, and this results in a minor increase in TWh from wind power. The annual increase in 2040 is 0.8 % (13).

However, according to research on the impact of climate change on near-surface flow and hence wind energy density across northern Europe, the uncertainty of the projected wind changes is relatively high. Some results point at slight declines or no change in wind speed and energy density between 1961–1990 and 2071–2100 (14).

Denmark’s future bioenergy potential

In 2009, domestically produced biomass contributed 4.7% to the gross primary energy consumption in Denmark. It is possible to increase this fraction to ∼5%−13% of Danish energy consumption in 2020 (19).

Vulnerabilities Europe

Supply

The current key renewable energy sources in Europe are hydropower (19.8% of electricity generated) and wind. By the 2070s, hydropower potential for the whole of Europe is expected to decline by 6%, translated into a 20 to 50% decrease around the Mediterranean, a 15 to 30% increase in northern and eastern Europe and a stable hydropower pattern for western and central Europe (1,3,4). In areas with increased precipitation and runoff, dam safety may become a problem due to more frequent and intensive flooding events (5).

It has become apparent during recent heat waves and drought periods that electricity generation in thermal power plants may be affected by increases in water temperature and water scarcity. In the case of higher water temperatures the discharge of warm cooling water into the river may be restricted if limit values for temperature are exceeded. Electricity production has already had to be reduced in various locations in Europe during very warm summers (e.g. 2003, 2005 and 2006) (5,8).

Extreme heat waves can pose a serious threat to uninterrupted electricity supplies, mainly because cooling air may be too warm and cooling water may be both scarce and too warm (9).

Climate change will impact thermoelectric power production in Europe through a combination of increased water temperatures and reduced river flow, especially during summer. In particular, thermoelectric power plants in southern and south-eastern Europe will be affected by climate change. Using a physically based hydrological and water temperature modelling framework in combination with an electricity production model, a summer average decrease in capacity of power plants of 6.3–19% in Europe was shown for 2031–2060 compared with 1971-2000, depending on cooling system type and climate scenario (SRES B1 and A2) (18).

Overall, a decrease in low flows (10th percentile of daily distribution) for Europe (except Scandinavia) is projected with an average decrease of 13-15% for 2031–2060 and 16-23% for 2071-2100,compared with 1971-2000. Increases in mean summer (21 June - 20 September) water temperatures are projected of 0.8-1.0°C for 2031–2060 and 1.4-2.3°C for 2071-2100, compared with 1971-2000. Projected water temperature increases are highest in the south-western and south-eastern parts of Europe (18).

By the 22nd century, land area devoted to biofuels may increase by a factor of two to three in all parts of Europe (2).

Demand

It may become more challenging to meet energy demands during peak times due to more frequent heat waves and drought conditions (1). Strong distributional patterns are expected across Europe — with rising cooling (electricity) demand in summer in southern Europe, compared with reduced heating (energy) demand in winter in northern Europe (7).

Climate change impacts on electricity markets in Western Europe

The expected climate changes in the 21st century are likely to have a small impact on electricity prices and production for the energy markets of Western Europe. This has been estimated by modelling three climatic effects (17):

• changes in demand for electricity due to changes in the need for heating and cooling,
• changes in supply of hydropower due to changes in precipitation and temperature, and
• changes in thermal power supply due to warmer cooling water and therefore lower plant efficiency.

According to the model results each of these three partial effects changes the average electricity producer price by less than 2%, while the net effect is an increase in the average producer price of only 1%. Similarly, the partial effects on total electricity production are small, and the net effect is a decrease of 4%.

The greatest effects of climate change are found for those Nordic countries with a large market share for reservoir hydro. In these countries total annual production increases by 8%, reflecting an expected increase in inflow of water. A substantial part of the increase in Nordic production is exported; climate change doubles net exports of electricity from the Nordic countries, while the optimal reservoir capacity is radically reduced (17).

Adaptation strategies

Decreases in water withdrawal for electricity production are likely. Many older power stations rely on once-through cooling systems, and newer plants are expected to replace many of these over the next thirty years. The newer plants usually operate with tower cooling systems, which should result in substantial reductions, of 50% or more, in water withdrawal, despite an expected near doubling of thermal electricity production in Europe between 1990 and 2030 (16).

References

The references below are cited in full in a separate map 'References'. Please click here if you are looking for the full references for Denmark.

1. Lehner et al. (2005), in: Alcamo et al. (2007)
2. Metzger et al. (2004), in: Alcamo et al. (2007)
3. Kirkinen et al. (2005), in: Anderson (ed.) (2007)
4. Veijalainen and Vehviläinen (2006); Andréasson et al. (2006), in: Anderson (ed.) (2007)
5. Anderson (ed.) (2007)
6. Rothstein et al. (2006), in: Anderson (ed.) (2007)
7. Alcamo et al., 2007
8. EEA, JRC and WHO (2008)
9. Behrens et al. (2010)
10. Danish Ministry of the Environment (2005)
11. Pedersen et al. (2004), in: Gabrielsen (2005)
12. Danish Government (2008)
13. Gabrielsen (2005)
14. Pryor et al. (2005)
15. European Wind Energy Association (2011)
16. EEA (2005), in: European Commission (DG Environment) (2007)
17. Golombek et al. (2012)
18. Van Vliet et al. (2012)
19. Larsen et al. (2017)