Vulnerabilities Bulgaria

Shipping

In Europe, the highest amount of cargo by means of inland waterways is transported in the Rhine–Main–Danube corridor. In this corridor, no decrease in the performance of inland waterway transport due to extreme weather events is expected till 2050 (6). Extreme weather events relevant to inland waterway transport are low-water events (drought), high-water events (floods) and ice occurrence. Of less importance are wind gusts and reduced visibility. There is no convincing evidence that low-water events will become significantly severer on the Rhine as well as the Upper Danube in the near future. However, on the Lower Danube, some impact of drought in association with increased summer heat might appear. Severe low-water situations seem to become more important in the period 2071–2100. A quantitative conclusion on the future effects of high water on inland waterways cannot be drawn at this stage (6).

Ice occurrence is decreasing, due to global warming, as well as human impacts leading to shorter periods of suspension of navigation in regions where navigation may be prevented by ice. In fact, the Upper and Middle Rhine navigation has not been suspended due to ice since at least the 1970s (7). For the near future (until 2050), wind gusts are expected to remain on the same level as today (8), thereby not decreasing the safety of inland waterway transport. Visibility seems to improve, if the results for European airports are considered (8), thereby improving the safety of inland waterway transport as well as operation of inland waterway vessels.

Adaptation strategies in Bulgaria

Buildings

Soviet-era panel-style buildings are an important consideration when planning for climate change in the region. Most block flats, which were designed to have a lifespan of about thirty years, already were in disrepair at the time the regimes fell (1). Bulgaria, for instance, recently indicated that 10% of its panel dwellings were in need of urgent repairs (1) while the Slovak Ministry of Construction estimated that it would cost over 10.3 billion Euros and take more than thirty years to complete the structural repairs necessary to ensure the safety of these buildings (2).

Although they are in need of basic renovation, there is growing evidence that panel buildings, both block flats used for housing and public buildings of similar construction, have the potential to be efficiently renovated and to incorporate energy-saving retrofits. The major aspects of retrofitting focus on energy-saving measures. These include thermal insulation, replacement windows, and modernization of central heating systems. In addition to these measures, green roofing is being tested as a further means for improving the quality of living spaces as well as a way to manage fluctuations in precipitation. Studies suggest that rooftop gardens:

• help to control interior temperature, by decreasing the heat entering and exiting a building through the roof, and thus reduce energy demand (3). Widespread introduction of gardens will add to urban greenspace and, in the process, help moderate heat island effects.
• can reduce the level of runoff and moderate the potential of flooding during heavy rainfall (3,4).
• assist in harvesting rainwater. The basic idea is that rainwater is filtered into storage tanks and then used for non-potable activities such as laundry, toilets, and watering plants (5).

References

The references below are cited in full in a separate map 'References'. Please click here if you are looking for the full references for Bulgaria.

1. Iliev and Yuksel (2004), in: Carmin and Zhang (2009)
2. CiJ (2008), in: Carmin and Zhang (2009)
3. Bass and Baskaran (2001), in: Carmin and Zhang (2009)
4. Hadley and Carter (2006), in: Carmin and Zhang (2009)
5. Carmin and Zhang (2009)
6. Schweighofer (2014)
7. WSD Südwest (2009), in: Schweighofer (2014)
8. Vajda et al. (2011), in: Schweighofer (2014)