Vulnerabilities - Terrestrial biodiversity

Over the next 90 years, climate change may result in the following consequences:

In the lowlands – Tree species diversity reduction. In spite of that, the biodiversity would be greater compared with the biodiversity in the mountain regions. The selected tree species guarantee increased bio-productivity. It could be considered that if proper selection is made, optimal bio-production could be released under changed climate conditions.

In mountains – Increased tree biodiversity could be expected. It could be realized by means of the natural shifting of tree vegetation from lower to higher sites in the mountains. This process would be combined with biomass production increase.

Both in lowlands and mountains – Increased biomass productivity would be accompanied by increased CO2 absorption.

The status of the forests (in all altitudes) is not expected to become critical.

Vulnerabilities - Marine biodiversity

Surface temperature of the Black Sea increased during the period 1982 – 2015 by 0.64 °C per decade. This is expected to continue, possibly reaching +5.1 °C by 2100 (compared to 2015). The warming of the sea seems to influence the amount of caught anchovies in the Black Sea, the most caught fish species in the Black Sea. The amount of captured anchovies generally decreased with increased sea surface temperature (2).

References

The references below are cited in full in a separate map 'References'. Please click here if you are looking for the full references for Bulgaria.

1. Ministry of Environment and Water (2010)
2. Sakalli and Başusta (2018)